11:59: Just so this post has a proper ending, Romney pulled it out in Ohio – but not by much. He escaped a major catastrophe by the skin of his teeth and had to settle for a minor one. Santorum won by surprisingly large margins in Tennessee and North Dakota – and obviously pulled down Oklahoma as expected. Romney did win Massachusetts, Vermont, Idaho, and Virginia – and may yet add Alaska, which is not reporting yet. Gingrich won his home state and thereby stayed above his self-appointed dropout threshold, but I think we’re going to see a lot of calls for him to get out tomorrow. Next, the race heads South as we swing through Kansas, Alabama, Mississippi, and back through Missouri for their second turn in the spotlight (this one will actually count). That is a really hard stretch for Romney, especially if the bottom falls out of Gingrich’s remaining support. Whatever side you’re on, tonight shows that this is going to be a long race.
10:32: Santorum still holding to that lead but the big counties are only 40% in and a lot of Santorum’s areas are finishing their counts. Romney wins Idaho, Santorum wins ND.
10:05: Romney closing fast in Ohio. Santorum’s official lead down to 1.5% and Romney’s internal people are telling the media they’re ahead.
9:53: Finally getting results from Cleveland and Cincy. Brace for impact.
9:25: Santorum is blowing out everybody in North Dakota with 4% in. He’s got 52%. Paul second with 21%. So he’s got at least 3. He’s also built up a 12,000 vote lead in Ohio, but still no non -absentee votes from Cleveland or Cincy.
9:13: Santorum has a 2% lead in Ohio. HOWEVER, Romney has a lot of votes in Cleveland and Cincinnati and both of those have only counted absentees.
8:28: Fox News says Ohio is 42-36 Romney with 7% in. Standard breakdown with Romney taking cities and Santorum taking the rural vote. Romney seems to be getting bigger margins in his areas than Santorum is in his.
8:14: Early Tennesee results are really positive for Santorum but it’s less than 1% in. Still, he’s doing well in rural TN. Romney up 40-37 in OH, also less than 1% counted. Also, Paul did NOT get 91% in Salem City, VA with 100% in - must’ve been a glitch or something. Romney actually won there.
7:52: Salem City County, VA does NOT like Mitt Romney. 91.8% for Ron Paul with 100% counted.
7:41: Ron Paul has 43% in Virginia as a pure anti-Romney protest. Nice to know that the base is consolidating behind Mitt…*snicker*
7:17: Welcome to the biggest night of the presidential primary calendar. The race for the GOP nomination may end tonight…or not. I’m not hazarding predictions for the close states tonight (I have a few guesses but not ready to call it), but I am excited to see how it plays out. For those keeping score at home: here’s a quick rundown of what to watch for as results come in from Ohio, Tennessee, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, Vermont, Oklahoma, Virginia, North Dakota, and Alaska.
Barring surprises, there are really only two states that matter – Ohio and Tennessee. Both are big and both are close. Ohio is a two way battle between Romney and Santorum. Santorum lost a big lead the after he lost Michigan, but the two are still close to even – and Santorum should have a big edge among absentee voters (which is the opposite of the Michigan scenario). Tennessee could be even uglier – the polls show a three way tie between Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich. Most of the rest are supposedly foregone conclusions. Romney will win Idaho, Massacusetts, and Vermont in a rout. Santorum should win Oklahoma easily, and Gingrich will win his home state of Georgia. Romney gets a win with an asterisk in Virginia because Santorum and Newt aren’t on the ballot. Lastly you have Alaska and North Dakota, neither has been polled because they are so small – so we may or may not have some action there. I’ve seen them penciled in for Romney (a good guess, particularly for Alaska), but that’s mostly just assumption based on national numbers. Ron Paul could be strong in both, as they are small caucus states. Paul’s supposed ability to hijack caucuses has so far fail to materialize, but Alaska had a huge Ron Paul vote in 2008, so it may be his best shot at winning something this year. North Dakota is also culturally similar to it’s neighbor Minnesota, so I’ve heard speculation that it may be kind to Santorum. We’ll just have to wait and see.
Also – for the sake of full disclosure – I am also watching the first night of American Idol…so I will not be held liable for any random comments I make about that show.